Results

cesm2.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means −0.43 −0.51 −0.53 −0.62
ratio_of_sd 0.96 1.00 0.95 0.93
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.75 0.96 0.82 0.72
maximum_error 0.44 0.13 0.26 0.27
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.29 0.14 0.17 0.28
qqplot_mae 1.26 1.48 1.54 1.81
acf_mae 0.13 0.03 0.08 0.11
extremogram_mae 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.04

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means −0.50 −0.57 −0.59 −0.68
ratio_of_sd 0.93 0.97 0.92 0.89
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.74 0.96 0.81 0.71
maximum_error 0.42 0.13 0.25 0.27
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.21 0.04 0.12 0.22
qqplot_mae 1.45 1.65 1.74 1.97
acf_mae 0.12 0.02 0.07 0.10
extremogram_mae 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp585

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means −0.37 −0.44 −0.47 −0.56
ratio_of_sd 0.96 0.99 0.95 0.92
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.74 0.96 0.81 0.71
maximum_error 0.41 0.11 0.25 0.26
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.17 0.05 0.09 0.19
qqplot_mae 1.08 1.29 1.38 1.63
acf_mae 0.13 0.03 0.08 0.11
extremogram_mae 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.03

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

ec_earth3.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means −0.19 −0.27 −0.28 −0.39
ratio_of_sd 0.97 1.02 0.96 0.93
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.67 0.95 0.72 0.62
maximum_error 0.45 0.16 0.26 0.34
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.37 0.18 0.28 0.37
qqplot_mae 0.56 0.77 0.84 1.14
acf_mae 0.17 0.07 0.14 0.17
extremogram_mae 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.05

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means −0.15 −0.32 −0.34 −0.41
ratio_of_sd 1.14 1.15 1.09 1.09
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.83 0.96 0.92 0.82
maximum_error 0.44 0.11 0.22 0.30
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.42 0.30 0.29 0.35
qqplot_mae 0.77 1.03 0.98 1.20
acf_mae 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.12
extremogram_mae 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.02

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.03 −0.13 −0.17 −0.24
ratio_of_sd 1.09 1.11 1.06 1.04
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.79 0.96 0.88 0.77
maximum_error 0.43 0.11 0.22 0.32
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.43 0.29 0.30 0.40
qqplot_mae 0.55 0.63 0.54 0.70
acf_mae 0.14 0.07 0.10 0.12
extremogram_mae 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.04

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.00 −0.17 −0.20 −0.27
ratio_of_sd 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.09
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.82 0.96 0.90 0.80
maximum_error 0.44 0.11 0.22 0.32
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.41 0.28 0.30 0.37
qqplot_mae 0.76 0.88 0.72 0.78
acf_mae 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.13
extremogram_mae 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.02

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.