Climate response variable: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: - Response: ERA5 in reduced scale - Data perdiod: 1980
- 2015.
- Predictors: from CMIP6 (daily or monthly) - Predictors variables:
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl in daily
scale, clt, rsdt,rsds in monthly
scale, the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily
daylight amount in seconds.
Validation:
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.43 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.62 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.75 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| maximum_error | 0.44 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.26 | 1.48 | 1.54 | 1.81 |
| acf_mae | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.50 | −0.57 | −0.59 | −0.68 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.74 | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| maximum_error | 0.42 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.45 | 1.65 | 1.74 | 1.97 |
| acf_mae | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.37 | −0.44 | −0.47 | −0.56 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.74 | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| maximum_error | 0.41 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| qqplot_mae | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| acf_mae | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.39 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.97 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 0.93 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.67 | 0.95 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| maximum_error | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.56 | 0.77 | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| acf_mae | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.41 |
| ratio_of_sd | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.83 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| maximum_error | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.42 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.77 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| acf_mae | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 0.03 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.24 |
| ratio_of_sd | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.77 |
| maximum_error | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| acf_mae | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.27 |
| ratio_of_sd | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.09 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| maximum_error | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| acf_mae | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.